Unresolved issues between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fraught with serious consequences – Trend

Posted: April 10, 2012 in Confrontation, Economy and Resources, Environment, Geography, Health, History, Human Rights, Language, Politics, Region, Relations, Resources, Tajikistan

Long contradictions between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – Central Asian neighbors in the region are more and more aggravated. Despite the problems in the relations between Tashkent and Dushanbe are not new, today, they can lead to very serious consequences.

Last time the relations have deteriorated due to the suspension of natural gas supplies from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan since April 1, as well as the delay of Tajik goods in Uzbekistan. Moreover, Tashkent denied Dushanbe to transport Turkmen gas through its territory.

According to Dushanbe, the Uzbek authorities deliberately provoke social tensions in Tajikistan by their actions, as well as contribute to the growing dissatisfaction with the local authority among the Tajik population. According to Tashkent, the incident on the railway, which resulted in the cargo delay, was a terrorist attack. Gas supply was stopped because of the need to fulfill their contractual obligations to China, where Uzbekistan redirected gas instead of Tajikistan.

It is hard to say which of the two neighboring countries should be blamed as each of them has their own truth. Historically, the parties in a certain sense are dependent of each other’s position. They fail to allot resources in the region for nearly 20 years. What are the threats of this aggravation?

Some analysts predict a worsening of relations between the two countries up to a military conflict. However, this scenario is unlikely to occur, because the two neighboring countries are incommensurate in their power. Uzbekistan has been competing with Kazakhstan for regional leadership for a long time, and perhaps even now. According to some reports, Tajikistan, on the contrary, is believed to be the poorest country in the region.

However, the aggravation of relations with neighboring Uzbekistan might cause the instability in the region and serious problems in Tajikistan.

Perhaps, a negative outcome of the situation will not keep waiting for a long time.

At present, Tashkent has the opportunity to skillfully manipulate the situation to exert pressure on Dushanbe.

For example, the activity of several major companies, including cement and aluminum plants was complicated due to the suspension of Uzbek gas supplies to the republic.

This can significantly reduce the revenues to the republic’s budget, because the country exports goods of these companies.

via Unresolved issues between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fraught with serious consequences – Trend.

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